China vs Philippines

Statistical numbers are clear – we are outnumbered! The Philippine Navy force is no match against the powerful Chinese Naval force. Well, that is expected. China is now becoming one of the most influential and powerful countries in the world. It is just right for the country to modernize its naval forces to defend its seas and coasts. According to one article I’ve read, China operates the largest submarine force in Asia.

Via sinodefence.com:

The modernisation of the PLAN over the past decade has been driven by two factors, the possibility of a military conflict with Taiwan over the island’s declaration of independence, and more recently, the growing needs to protect China’s sea lines of communications (SLOC) in order to secure the country’s global network of energy resources and trading activities.

…”secure the country’s global network of energy resources…” The phrase sounds to include the recent dispute on the West Philippine Sea (according to the Filipinos) or South China Sea (according to the Chinese). China and the Philippines, plus four other nations — Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam — are all claiming to own the Spratlys. The group of islands (more than 30,000 islands and reefs) is said to be abundant in natural gas reserves, which of course means fuel and megawatts of power to the country that could monopolize the activities in the area.

Currently, the Philippines is occupying seven islands and three reefs. China has eight reefs. If you ask the Philippine government, the Spratly Islands are part of the Philippine territory as they are “obviously” closest to Palawan province. In fact, they are included in the municipality of Kalayaan.

Who can blame the Chinese government in claiming the Spratly Islands as part of its Paracels’ Authority? With the commercial value of the islands, any country surrounding them would want to have a piece of the pie. China claims that the islands are part of its territorial waters, therefore putting the disputed group under “China’s blue territories” of the Hainan Province.

In recent news, the tension in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China is mounting. With China erecting structures on the islands and intruding Philippine territories, the Chinese is clear of its mission – get rid of all claimants, especially the assertive Philippines. The Kalayaan group of islands is within the Philippine 200-mile zone, and yet here is China (which is about 600 miles away) aggressively claiming it.

One thing is sure, China will never back out. Its powerful Navy is the reason they claim the Spratlys. Look where the Philippines is in terms of Navy strength in comparison to China.

Source: Global Fire Power

China has 21 destroyers, the Philippines has none (oh, we do have slow-moving pump boats!) China has 68 submarines, the Philippines has zero. The Philippines has a longer coastline than China but we only have 24 patrol coastal craft, China has 368. No contest, China wins hands down! If the Philippines decides to go to war against the powerful China, the former will be collecting its disintegrated pump boats floating on the South China Sea.

But this should not give us the reason not to fight for our right as a country. China violated our sovereignty by erecting structures and posts on islands within Philippine territory.

The only way to defeat a power is to fight it with power. Since, sadly, the Philippines lacks enough power, the direction to go is to tap its allies. Who else could that be other than the United States of America!

Philippine Star reported:

The Philippines conveyed to the US its resolve to strengthen its external defense capabilities amid the brewing disputes in the Spratly group of islands in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

…The Philippine Embassy in Washington D.C. said Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton discussed the situation in the West Philippine Sea, and shared the view that the recent incidents in the region are a source of concern that could undermine regional peace and stability.

The two officials agreed to consult closely on ways to protect their shared interest in maintaining freedom of navigation, respect for international law, and unimpeded lawful commerce in the West Philippine Sea.

Indeed, the Philippines got what it wanted. Hillary Clinton pledged last week to help the Philippines by modernizing its navy and changing aging warship that was used by the U.S. during World War II.

“We are determined and committed to supporting the defense of the Philippines, and that means trying to find ways of providing affordable material and equipment that will assist the Philippine military to take the steps necessary to defend itself and to have a credible response against external threats at home and at the South China Sea”.

In relation to that, “three warships from the United States Navy (USN) are dropping anchor in the island province of Palawan on Tuesday for this year’s launching of the joint Philippines-US Naval war exercises, aka Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT), aimed at further developing maritime security capabilities of the two nations’ naval forces.”

The US sailors as well as their other military assets that will be participating in the CARAT with their Filipino Navy counterparts, are composed of US Navy Seabees, representatives from the US Coast Guard Maritime Safety and Security Team (MSST), the US Navy Mobile Security Squadron, a US Navy Riverine Force and Medical Support personnel.

CARAT would be held in the nearby waters of the West Philippine Sea where tension has been mounting for weeks now due to China’s aggressiveness in asserting its territorial claim over the entire region which the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan are also claiming in whole or in part

China is, of course, not happy with the U.S. involvement in the issue. Vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai warned, “I believe some countries now are playing with fire. And I hope the US won’t be burned by this fire”.

Is the Philippines now sending a message to China that even how small a country it is, it won’t give in to bullies?

Now that the Philippines has the U.S. full support, what are the strings attached? The U.S. does not give anything for free. Is the U.S. helping the Philippines for its own interest? It is most likely. But the ordinary Filipino does not care, as long as the Philippines remains relatively safe and secure under Uncle Sam’s protection.

I don’t think the tension will subside now that the Philippines is supported by the US. Nothing will change in terms of China’s aggression.

In fact, it has become even more tensed.

In fact, right now, it looks like the Philippines is trapped in the cold war between the U.S. and China. Aren’t the two powerful nations not in good terms?

To all of us following this story, we have not seen the worse yet. This is just the beginning.

The Philippines is ranked 18th regionally and 94th overall, down eight places since the last edition, with a weaker performance across most areas measured by the Index. Among the country’s strengths are aspects of its natural resources: it is ranked 24th for the number of World Heritage natural sites and 40th for the total known species in the country. The Philippines also benefits from excellent price competitiveness (ranked 20th), with low prices overall, particularly hotel prices, and low ticket taxes and airport charges. There are also some aspects of the policy rules and regulations regime that are conducive to the development of the sector, such as few visa requirements for foreign visitors (ranked 3rd) and bilateral Air Service Agreements that are assessed as comparatively open (29th), although other areas— such as the protection of property rights, rules related to foreign investment, and the difficulty of starting a business in the country—remain a challenge. Other matters of concern are safety and security (ranked 109th); health and hygiene levels (97th); and transport, tourism, and ICT infrastructures that require upgrading.

This is a screenshot of the table showing the Philippines’ overall ranking breakdown in each qualifying category. Which one did the country score low?

And see how the Pilipinas fares among all Asia Pacific countries.

Why are we going down the ranks? The Philippine government should really look into the business environment and improve our infrastructure. These are the areas were we scored so low.

The State of Peace Map

Here is where we stand among the bottom countries (with average scores):

125 – Honduras – 2.395
126 – Turkey – 2.420
127 – Ethiopia – 2.444
128 – India – 2.516
129 – Yemen – 2.573
130 – Philippines – 2.574
131 – Burundi – 2.577
132 – Myanmar – 2.580
133 – Sri Lanka – 2.621
134 – Lebanon – 2.639
135 – Zimbabwe – 2.678
136 – Central African Republic – 2.753
137 – Nigeria – 2.756
138 – Colombia – 2.787
139 – North Korea – 2.855
140 – Democratic Republic of the Congo – 2.925
141 – Chad – 2.964
142 – Georgia – 2.970
143 – Russia – 3.013
144 – Israel – 3.019
145 – Pakistan – 3.050
146 – Sudan – 3.125
147 – Afghanistan – 3.252
148 – Somalia – 3.390
149 – Iraq – 3.406

Here’s more. The Philippines is one of the top 5 fallers in the 2009 GPI.

1. Cyprus – Rank: 76
Change in score 2009-10: 0.276
Change in rank 2009-10: -25

2. Syria – Rank: 115
Change in score 2009-10: 0.225
Change in rank 2009-10: -18

3. Philippines – Rank: 130
Change in score 2009-10: 0.247
Change in rank 2009-10: -10

4. Georgia – Rank: 142
Change in score 2009-10: 0.234
Change in rank 2009-10: -3

5. Russia – Rank: 143
Change in score 2009-10: 0.264
Change in rank 2009-10: -2

The Philippines’ slide in the GPI rankings to 130th position echoes rises in the country’s indicators of internal conflict and crime. Several regions experienced a worsening security situation in 2009. A violent conflict between the Islamist Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the government centered on Sulu, in the southwest of the Mindanao archipelago, escalated, with 163 conflict-related fatalities in 2009, compared with 82 during the previous year. The ASG continued to use kidnapping to raise its profile and hostages as bargaining tools. An ongoing contretemps between the Communist Party of the Philippines and its military wing, the New People’s Army (NPA) and the government remained violent and peace talks, initiated by Norway, were postponed.

Perceptions of criminality in Filipino society rose to a score of 4, defined as “high levels of distrust in other citizens”. Violent crime is high in many districts and armed guards are routinely deployed to defend private property. Kidnap-for-ransom is also a high risk, especially among the ethnic-Chinese community, which is perceived as wealthy and willing to pay a ransom to secure the release of an abducted relative. The homicide rate escalated, according to UNODC, and the proportion of the population in jail ratcheted up in 2009 to a score of 3 (fairly high, by regional standards).

I selected some of the peace indicators and checked how we fared (ranked 1-5: very low-very high):

Number of external and internal conflicts fought – 3/5
Conflict is defined as a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle deaths in a year. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program.

Relations with neighbouring countries – 2/5
Qualitative assessment of relations with neighbouring countries.

Number of deaths from organised conflict (internal) – 3/5
Number of battle deaths from internal conflict, which is defined as a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year.

Political instability – 2.75/5
Qualitative assessment of the political instability within the country. It addresses the degree to which political institutions are sufficiently stable to support the needs of its citizens, businesses and overseas investors.

Potential for terriorist acts – 4/5
Qualitative assessment of the potential for terrorist acts within a country.

Number of homicides per 100,000 people – 3/5
Intentional homicide refers to death deliberately inflicted on a person by another person, including infanticide.

Likelihood of violent demonstrations – 4/5
Qualitative assessment of the likelihood of violent demonstration within the country.

Some others indicators:

Electoral process – 8.33/10
Qualitative assessment of whether elections are competitive in that electors are free to vote and are offered a range of choices. Ranked 1- 10 (very low to very high).

Functioning of government – 5/10
Qualitative assessment of whether freely elected representatives determine government policy? Is there an effective system of checks and balances on the exercise of government authority? Ranked 1- 10 (very low to very high).

Political culture – 3.13/10
Qualitative assessment of the degree of societal consensus and cohesion to underpin a stable, functioning democracy; score the level of separation of church and state. Ranked 1- 10 (very low to very high).

Civil liberties – 9.12/10
Qualitative assessment of the prevalence of civil liberties. Is there a free electronic media? Is there a free print media? Is there freedom of expression and protest? Are citizens free to form professional organisations and trade unions? Ranked 1- 10 (very low to very high).

Corruption perceptions – 2.4/10
The Corruption Perception Index draws on multiple expert opinion surveys that poll perceptions of public sector corruption scoring countries on a scale from 0 – 10, with 0 indicating high levels of perceived corruption and 10 indicating low levels of perceived corruption.

Women in parliament – 21%
Percentage of the total number of representatives in the lower house. Figures are based on information provided by national parliaments.

Freedom of the press - 38.25/100
The index measures the state of press freedom in the world, reflecting the degree of freedom journalists and news organisations enjoy in each country, and the efforts made by the state to respect and ensure respect for this freedom.

Current education spending (% of GDP) – 2.53%
Public spending on education, total (% of GDP).

Adult literacy rate (% of pop over 15) – 93.6%
Data refers to national literacy estimates from censuses or surveys.

Willingness to fight – 3/5
Qualitative assessment of the willingness of citizens to fight in wars. Ranked 1- 5 (very low to very high) by EIU analysts.

Unemployment % – 7.5 %
ILO defines the unemployed as members of the economically active population who are without work but available for and seeking work, including people who have lost their jobs and those who have voluntary left work.

There were some points where we rated good enough, but there were more points where we rated way, way low.

And the most peaceful countries? New Zealand is ranked as the country most at peace for the second consecutive year, followed by Iceland and Japan.

Here are the top 10:

1 - New Zealand - 1.188
2 - Iceland - 1.212
3 - Japan - 1.247
4 - Austria - 1.290
5 - Norway - 1.322
6 - Ireland - 1.337
7 - Denmark - 1.341
7 - Luxembourg - 1.341
9 - Finland - 1.352
10 - Sweden – 1.354

It is also very surprising to know that the United States has been ranked 85 out of 149 countries.

So what is next for us? Only our elected officials will know. President Noynoy Aquino, please do something with this!

Radio and TV Host, Glenn Beck

I have never been a Glenn Beck fan. To me, what Glenn Beck says on TV (or tries to explain on TV) is full of ignorance that a ten-year-old kid can explain issues even better. What he did to Pres. Obama’s daughter, 11-year-old Malia Obama, confirms the twisted 10-year-old brain of Beck. In his radio program this morning, Beck mocked and attacked the intelligence of Malia. He and his co-host crossed the line, laughed at the expense of an 11-year-old girl.

He was the one who said to leave kids of public figures on the sidelines. But he was also the one who broke his own rule. Oh yeah, what do you expect from a 10-year-old brain?

Beck’s attack on Malia came from Obama’s statement yesterday during the Gulf oil spill press conference. The President said his daughter asked for an update on the oil leak “You know, when I woke up this morning and I’m shaving, and Malia knocks on my bathroom door and she peeks in her head and she says, ‘did you plug the hole yet, Daddy?” That line — did you plug the hole yet, Daddy? — ticked Beck’s tiny brain.

Listen to the audio:

BECK: (imitating Malia) Daddy? Daddy? Daddy, did you plug the hole yet? Daddy?

PAT GRAY (co-host): (imitating Obama) No I didn’t, honey.

BECK: (imitating Malia) Daddy, I know you’re better than [unintelligible]

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Mm-hmm, big country.

BECK: (imitating Malia) And I was wondering if you’ve plugged that hole yet.

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Honey, not yet.

BECK: (imitating Malia) Why not, daddy? But daddy–

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Not time yet, honey. Hasn’t done enough damage.

BECK: (imitating Malia) Daddy?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Not enough damage yet, honey.

BECK: (imitating Malia) Daddy?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Yeah?

BECK: (imitating Malia) Why do you hate black people so much?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) I’m part white, honey.

BECK: (imitating Malia) What?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) What?

BECK: (imitating Malia) What’d you say?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Excuse me?

BECK: (laughing) This is such a ridiculous — this is such a ridiculous thing that his daughter– (imitating Malia) Daddy?

GRAY: It’s so stupid.

BECK: How old is his daughter? Like, thirteen?

GRAY: Well, one of them’s, I think, thirteen, one’s eleven, or something.

BECK: “Did you plug the hole yet, daddy?” Is that’s their — that’s the level of their education, that they’re coming to — they’re coming to daddy and saying ‘Daddy, did you plug the hole yet?’ ” Plug the hole!

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Yes, I was doing some deep-sea diving yesterday, and–

BECK: (imitating Malia) Daddy?

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Yeah, mm-hmm, mm-hmm, I was doing–

BECK: (imitating Malia) Why–

GRAY: (imitating Obama) Yeah, honey, I’m–

BECK (imitating Malia) Why, why, why, why, do you still let the polar bears die? Daddy, why do you still let Sarah Palin destroy the environment? Why are — Daddy, why don’t you just put her in some sort of a camp?

Why would a 46-year-old Beck attack an 11-year-old girl? Oh, I forgot, he is only ten years old!

Mar Roxas and Noynoy Aquino

Why is Manuel A. Roxas or Mar Roxas trailing behind (or might lose to) Jejomar C. Binayin the Philippine Vice-Presidential race? In the past months before the May 10 elections, Mar Roxas had been leading in most, if not all, electoral surveys for vice-presidents. His lead was not even near to his closest opponent, Loren Legarda. Mar Roxas was leading by 2-digit points. Where was Jejomar C. Binay? He was lagging behind, in the pathetic third.

The Aquino-Roxas tandem was believed to have been the duo to beat. Both were seen to have the appeal for the Filipino people. But when the votes were counted and tallied, only Ninoy “Noynoy” Aquino made it to a sure seat, commanding a big lead from the second candidate in the tally, former Pres. Joseph Estrada. What happened to his teammate Mar Roxas?

All of a sudden, Jejomar Binay is leading the vote counting. In almost all exit polls and unofficial tallies, Binay is ahead of Roxas by less than a million votes (roughly, 800,000 votes). The trend is like that, even now at over 90% of 76,475 precincts already tallied. With only 10% remaining precincts not canvassed, Roxas remains hopeful, while Binay assures the people saying there is no way Roxas could overtake his numbers.

What went wrong to Roxas’ campaign? There are reports circulating that the fall of Roxas may have been caused by some of Aquino’s supporters campaigning for Binay. There are rumors that not all “big names in politics” were in favor of Roxas as Aquino’s running mate. This may be true, but the effects would have been minimal or the effects would have shown in all the pre-election surveys conducted where Roxas had led the vice-presidential race. Yet, there was no sign of Roxas being beaten by any of his opponents. Also, having a wife (TV personality Korina Sanchez) so famous and loved by many would give everyone a picture of Roxas as the only VP candidate to beat.

There are also reports that Binay gathered more votes than Roxas because of his involvement with the Alpha Phi Omega (APO) fraternity, which has chapters all over the Philippines. Binay said in a report that his victory could be attributed to his frat brothers campaigning for him tirelessly. This could be true as well. But as I have said, the results would have manifested in surveys released days before the election day.

So, what really went wrong? I have a theory. This theory may be considered outlandishly false by many of you, but very likely to occur and possible. I blame Roxas’ failure to the design of the ballot form. Study the official ballot used in the 2010 automated elections below (clipped from Sun-Star website):

What do you notice? The name Jejomar Binay was written on the first column, first row. Mar Roxas was listed on the third column, second row. Then what?

I have lived most of my life in a far town in Cebu and, as a Filipino citizen, had participated in all electoral processes, national and local. I had met many ordinary people, those who lived simple lives in isolated areas, who had conversations with me regarding the significance of the top two positions of the land. In most of those chats, they opined how “unnecessary” the vice-presidential position is, vis-a-vis the responsibilities of the president. If they have to vote, they will only place or write (with reference to the manual voting system) the name of the president and leave all the others empty. If you are old and barely able to read the texts on the ballot, would you ever care to fill all the slots and vote for your choices for 1 president, 1 vice-president, 12 senators, 1 party-list group, 1 member House of Representatives, 1 provincial governor, 1 provincial vice-governor, 2 sangguniang panlalawigan members, 1 mayor, 1 vice-mayor, and 8 sangguniang bayan members? Would you completely fill out the ballot with 30 names? I doubt it.

With this premise that some voters deem the presidential position as the only important seat and consider others less necessary, it is very likely that Roxas’ candidacy has been in jeopardy all along. I tallied the partial results from the Commission on Elections (as of 11:05 am, May 14, 2010), posted by ABS-CBN on its website.

Summary of votes for President – 33, 282, 914
Summary of votes for Vice-President – 32, 420, 208

Why didn’t the numbers match? Where are the 862, 706 voters? This illustrates that there were 862, 706 voters who did not even care a fig to cast a vote for the vice-presidential position. This theory of some “people” giving less importance to the second highest position of the land leads to the next theory: the automated elections made it easy for these “people” to randomly select whoever is on the ballot. Or to translate it to a more specific notion, whoever is written first on the ballot. Look again at the ballot form above and tell me whose name was written first. The name of Jejomar C. Binay.

Did these “people” shade Binay’s name because it was the name written first? Did the forms cause Roxas’ defeat?

I have been following the news online and watching live streams from leading Philippine TV news channels. There was one article from Philippine Star that said “Disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) standard-bearer Vetellano Acosta got more votes than presidential aspirants Sen. Jamby Madrigal.” In terms of name popularity, Vetellano Acosta is no better than Jamby Madrigal. The senator was all the TV even before the elections began. Comelec Commissioner Nicodemo Ferrer said that “what made the poll results more interesting was the fact that Acosta had not appeared in any political debate and had no political advertisements.” He further said, however, that “since the resolution disqualifying Acosta came after the Comelec started printing the ballots for the May 10 elections, Acosta’s name remained on the ballot but the votes cast for him would not count.”

But why was Vetellano Acosta’s votes more than Sen. Jamby Madrigal’s? Because some “people” randomly select whoever is on the ballot. Where was Vetellano Acosta’s name written on the form? Same as Binay’s – first column, first row.

My theories may invite more questions and objections than nods, but, if you really think of it, they are very likely to happen. Don’t you think so?

Roxas would have won by landslide, like Aquino, had the forms been written in a different layout; say put the names of Aquino and Roxas side by side, or cluster the presidentiables and vice-presidentiables in pairs. I bet the results would have turned in Roxas’ favor. Too bad for Roxas, in this form where names were written in alphabetical order, Binay had the edge over him.

These are my theories – unfounded, no real data to prove them. I am not pro-Roxas nor pro-Binay. I am for anyone who will make the Philippines better.