Mar Roxas Will Lose Due to Automated Elections
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Mar Roxas and Noynoy Aquino
Why is Manuel A. Roxas or Mar Roxas trailing behind (or might lose to) Jejomar C. Binayin the Philippine Vice-Presidential race? In the past months before the May 10 elections, Mar Roxas had been leading in most, if not all, electoral surveys for vice-presidents. His lead was not even near to his closest opponent, Loren Legarda. Mar Roxas was leading by 2-digit points. Where was Jejomar C. Binay? He was lagging behind, in the pathetic third.
The Aquino-Roxas tandem was believed to have been the duo to beat. Both were seen to have the appeal for the Filipino people. But when the votes were counted and tallied, only Ninoy “Noynoy” Aquino made it to a sure seat, commanding a big lead from the second candidate in the tally, former Pres. Joseph Estrada. What happened to his teammate Mar Roxas?
All of a sudden, Jejomar Binay is leading the vote counting. In almost all exit polls and unofficial tallies, Binay is ahead of Roxas by less than a million votes (roughly, 800,000 votes). The trend is like that, even now at over 90% of 76,475 precincts already tallied. With only 10% remaining precincts not canvassed, Roxas remains hopeful, while Binay assures the people saying there is no way Roxas could overtake his numbers.
What went wrong to Roxas’ campaign? There are reports circulating that the fall of Roxas may have been caused by some of Aquino’s supporters campaigning for Binay. There are rumors that not all “big names in politics” were in favor of Roxas as Aquino’s running mate. This may be true, but the effects would have been minimal or the effects would have shown in all the pre-election surveys conducted where Roxas had led the vice-presidential race. Yet, there was no sign of Roxas being beaten by any of his opponents. Also, having a wife (TV personality Korina Sanchez) so famous and loved by many would give everyone a picture of Roxas as the only VP candidate to beat.
There are also reports that Binay gathered more votes than Roxas because of his involvement with the Alpha Phi Omega (APO) fraternity, which has chapters all over the Philippines. Binay said in a report that his victory could be attributed to his frat brothers campaigning for him tirelessly. This could be true as well. But as I have said, the results would have manifested in surveys released days before the election day.
So, what really went wrong? I have a theory. This theory may be considered outlandishly false by many of you, but very likely to occur and possible. I blame Roxas’ failure to the design of the ballot form. Study the official ballot used in the 2010 automated elections below (clipped from Sun-Star website):
What do you notice? The name Jejomar Binay was written on the first column, first row. Mar Roxas was listed on the third column, second row. Then what?
I have lived most of my life in a far town in Cebu and, as a Filipino citizen, had participated in all electoral processes, national and local. I had met many ordinary people, those who lived simple lives in isolated areas, who had conversations with me regarding the significance of the top two positions of the land. In most of those chats, they opined how “unnecessary” the vice-presidential position is, vis-a-vis the responsibilities of the president. If they have to vote, they will only place or write (with reference to the manual voting system) the name of the president and leave all the others empty. If you are old and barely able to read the texts on the ballot, would you ever care to fill all the slots and vote for your choices for 1 president, 1 vice-president, 12 senators, 1 party-list group, 1 member House of Representatives, 1 provincial governor, 1 provincial vice-governor, 2 sangguniang panlalawigan members, 1 mayor, 1 vice-mayor, and 8 sangguniang bayan members? Would you completely fill out the ballot with 30 names? I doubt it.
With this premise that some voters deem the presidential position as the only important seat and consider others less necessary, it is very likely that Roxas’ candidacy has been in jeopardy all along. I tallied the partial results from the Commission on Elections (as of 11:05 am, May 14, 2010), posted by ABS-CBN on its website.
Summary of votes for President – 33, 282, 914
Summary of votes for Vice-President – 32, 420, 208
Why didn’t the numbers match? Where are the 862, 706 voters? This illustrates that there were 862, 706 voters who did not even care a fig to cast a vote for the vice-presidential position. This theory of some “people” giving less importance to the second highest position of the land leads to the next theory: the automated elections made it easy for these “people” to randomly select whoever is on the ballot. Or to translate it to a more specific notion, whoever is written first on the ballot. Look again at the ballot form above and tell me whose name was written first. The name of Jejomar C. Binay.
Did these “people” shade Binay’s name because it was the name written first? Did the forms cause Roxas’ defeat?
I have been following the news online and watching live streams from leading Philippine TV news channels. There was one article from Philippine Star that said “Disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) standard-bearer Vetellano Acosta got more votes than presidential aspirants Sen. Jamby Madrigal.” In terms of name popularity, Vetellano Acosta is no better than Jamby Madrigal. The senator was all the TV even before the elections began. Comelec Commissioner Nicodemo Ferrer said that “what made the poll results more interesting was the fact that Acosta had not appeared in any political debate and had no political advertisements.” He further said, however, that “since the resolution disqualifying Acosta came after the Comelec started printing the ballots for the May 10 elections, Acosta’s name remained on the ballot but the votes cast for him would not count.”
But why was Vetellano Acosta’s votes more than Sen. Jamby Madrigal’s? Because some “people” randomly select whoever is on the ballot. Where was Vetellano Acosta’s name written on the form? Same as Binay’s – first column, first row.
My theories may invite more questions and objections than nods, but, if you really think of it, they are very likely to happen. Don’t you think so?
Roxas would have won by landslide, like Aquino, had the forms been written in a different layout; say put the names of Aquino and Roxas side by side, or cluster the presidentiables and vice-presidentiables in pairs. I bet the results would have turned in Roxas’ favor. Too bad for Roxas, in this form where names were written in alphabetical order, Binay had the edge over him.
These are my theories – unfounded, no real data to prove them. I am not pro-Roxas nor pro-Binay. I am for anyone who will make the Philippines better.
You said that all the surveys have Roxas has him comfortably ahead of Binay. That is mostly true. But the last survey, taken a week before election day, by SWS, show Binay and Roxas statistically tied, at 37%, with Binay slightly ahead of at 37.2%
If you look at the surveys, both by SWS and Pulse Asia, you would see a trend whereby Roxas, although leading, steadily declined, while Binay, while starting low, climbed throughout the campaign period. Legarda’s ratings meanwhile collapsed. In late April, Binay overtook Legarda About a week before the election, as reported by SWS, Roxas and Binay’s paths crossed. And so Binay overtook Roxas. The actual vote was Roxas, 37%, and Binay, 43%, which continued the trend.
The same happened with the presidential race, but not enough to erode Aquino’s lead. Rather, it put Villar at third place, with Erap at second. Notice that the last survey put Erap at 20% and Villar at 19%. Compare it with Erap’s actual showing of 26% and Villar about 14%. See the trend?
My theory is that at the beginning, the choice is perceived to be between Roxas and Legarda, like the presidency was a choice between Aquino and Villar. Many people who can’t stomach Legarda winning switched to Roxas by default. Now, when as a result of Escudero’s ad and other factors, Binay gained ground, and became a credible candidate, those who were not enthusiastic for Roxas but do not like Legarda switched to Binay in droves.
You are so wrong. Many people hate, correction, detest, Korina Sanchez and would not have voted REoxas if only they did not want her as part of their vote.
Let’s admit it — Chiz clinched it for NoyBi.